Mystery Home of the Week

Can you identify this modest Orange County home?

Posted via email from Paul's posterous

Real Estate Activity for May 2009

Check out the latest Real Estate activity for the month of May:

Saddleback Valley (Coto, Rancho Santa Margarita, Mission Viejo, Trabuco Canyon, Ladera Ranch, and Lake Forest)

Coto de Caza

Rancho Santa Margarita (including Dove Canyon, Rancho Cielo, Robinson Ranch, Wagon Wheel, Las Flores, and Walden)

Mission Viejo

Home Value - Price per Square Foot vs Median

One of the most common ways to evaluate the real estate market is by watching the sales price per square foot of homes sold ("sp/sqft"). Let's take a look at the results of homes sold in four local towns for the month of December 2008:

City	Homes Sold	Low SP/SQFT	High SP/SQFT	Average SP/SQFT
Coto de Caza	12	$222	$450	$319
Ladera Ranch	31	$207	$276	$242
Mission Viejo	92	$186	$362	$267
Rancho Santa Margarita	49	$204	$309	$264

For the expanded area including Lake Forest and Modjeska, Silverado and Trabuco Canyons in additon the the four above, the average price per square foot in December was $234 for attached homes (condos & townhomes) and $262 for detached single-family homes. This represents a drop of 20% for condos and 15% for single-family homes from January's average - a significant reduction, but not quite as catastrophic as is portrayed in the media. Year-over-year reductions of 25% or even 35% are often quoted, but these are based on changes in the "median" home value. The median is the value at which half the homes sold were less expensive and half were more expensive. Since an extremely high proportion of sales are occuring at the lower end of the market, the median home value is skewed significantly lower than the reduction in sales price per square foot!

Polo field update

Here's a pic of the planned site for the new arena, off Via Pajaro and adjacent to the Equestrian Center. In addition to concerns of local residents in The Village and Los Ranchos Estates, boarders and trainers at the Equestrian Center have voiced concerns about the loss of turnouts to the polo ponies and incompatibilities between the way polo ponies are exercised versus hunter/jumpers and trail horses. "Polo players need to 'pony' their horses, cantering around in groups of 3 or more - not much of a match for kids on jumpers in a nearby arena or folks on a quiet trail ride", said one boarder who asked not to be named. Could be interesting times ahead.

Foggy morning in Coto

New Polo Field Approved for Coto Equestrian Center

The Orange County Register is reporting that construction of a new arena has been approved by an OC zoning administrator. The arena will be built on previously undeveloped land adjacent to the existing Coto de Caza Equestrian Center on Via Pajaro. The project is the culmination of 3 years of negotiations and discussions between Silver-Bronze, the group which ownes the land, and members of the Orange County Polo Club, which will lease the facility. The field has been opposed by local residents because of concerns over parking and impact on views.

Silver-Bronze plans to use the lease revenue generated to upgrade the existing facilities they own, including the Equestrian Center, the Coto Valley Sports Club, and Gentilles at Coto de Caza. Ken Agid of Silver-Bronze says he expects the new polo arena to be completed and in use by April 2009.

Neighborhoods potentially impacted by the new construction include parts of The Village, one of Coto's earliest developments, consisting of all custom or semi-custom homes set among the hills and oak groves of Coto's north-eastern section.

1971 Mortgage Rates are Here Again!

Freddie Mac just released the results of it's survey of 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages for the week ending December 18, down to 5.47% with a 0.7 point. Rates have never been lower since they started producing the survey in 1971.

In the Orange County real estate market, rates are even lower. A quick scan of Orange County rates at e-rate.com shows multiple lenders offering conforming loans below 5%, with the lowest being 4.706% with 1.379 points, or 5% with no points.

What does that mean in practical terms? Imagine owning the 3,000 square foot home on the golf course in Coto de Caza, currently owned by the bank as seen here, for less than $3,400 per month (assuming a 20% down payment on the newly reduced price of $779,900). Expect the deals to start popping.